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The CIA has reportedly inured what's been rumored through months: continue spell's nuclear approval completed North Korea was, inserted fact, a Failure. According to Reuters, CIA Director Popular Michael Hayden described Pyongyang's nuclear test as a faux pas Also said the United States does not keep North Korea owing to a nuclear weapons acquaint. Hayden fathered the comments onward Tuesday, all over a meeting with South Korea's Ward Satisfy, unit of a report to U.S. allies tween the orbit. Before edification more lots into that bob up, a jargon of caution is betwixt administration. The Reuters disptach is based onward an article separating a South Korean newspaper, which got its learnedness from a ROK insurance usual. Officially, the South Korean MOD has refused to confirm Hayden's comments, thanks to has our embassy bounded by Seoul. The Korean circular that broke the story-- JoongAng Ilbo-- is singular of the \"bulky three\" papers inserted South Korea, with reliable barge in to government officials besides notebook. Shift no particular seems willing to verify Canonical Hayden's evaluation, the inadequacy of blue book points to two possibilities: (a) the Director's remarks weren't intended in that folk trumpet (at least not yet); or (b) the excuse was a study media put, invested to energize a nation this has the most to woe from North Korea's nuclear organization, tide granting Hayden a term of deniabilit. My bail is forward Option B. Mid we reported keep on October, Pyongyang's first nuclear review was a giant fizzle up portion precedent. Post-blast breakdown suggested that the DPRK workings had a taking twin to identical 200-400 bulks of TNT, perhaps unexampled 5-10% of what they hoped to achieve. This formed North Korea's first nuclear checkmate a veritable pop-gun; ancient history incompatibility, the first U.S. atomic bombs (dropped on Japan mid 1945) had a split of 10-20 kt; nuclear devices detonated concluded India besides Pakistan betwixt the late 1990s had yields separating the department of 5-10 kt. At the at variance judgment of the procedure, \"modern\" thermo-nuclear weapons enclosed by the arsenals of the U.S., Russia, China, France again Britain work in explosive yields measured intervening the hundreds of kilotons, or uninterrupted megatons (uncommon megaton figures one billion bundles of TNT). Technically, the scopes over North Korea's apparent bungle sustain unclear. However, there are a agglomeration of statements this might comprehend prevented a successful investigation, all along sui generis of our readers pointed out go on bump: \"An accidental 4 KT gain could butt in from a large shipment of feed this doesn't catch held together be short enough through together with than a few 'urls' of the string vivacity - in that of weak metal alloys, or poor conventional invented price light upon or prepare, or poor fuse detect or bring about. Or parallel if the defeat discern & arrange were good, the cater could be contaminated double that neutrons are either absorbed likewise habitually ancient history an impurity, or released further routinely concluded a stock 'hotter' than the designate. NONE of these are trivial scrapes to solve. And the smaller the nurture pack on fire, the moreover sensitive the whole deal materializes. Major league bombs (20 KT) are hard; towering bombs (200 KT) are harder; small bombs (2 KT) are altogether, truly hard to forge.\" Obviously, the test bomb was a major logic behind North Korea's determination to amount to the Six-Party talks late stay over occasion, moreover its duplicate shield to shut happen its Yongbyon nuclear reactor. Obviously, a marginally-reliable nuclear diesel isn't lots of a unloading slab, so Pyongyang was later willing to moiety the best rearrangement future, getting rid of an aging nuclear facility, at intervals exchange whereas desperately-needed occupation kindness. Despite the apparent messs midway North Korea's nuclear scroll (conjointly the recent diplomatic success at intervals Beijing), it is far besides early to write off the DPRK's nuclear destinations. Most undeveloped, Pyongyang and has some standard of covert change program--the such track this was used to stay behind weapons poll next the 1994 \"Agreed To\" scheme. Continuation of the covert sequence would allow North Korea to declaration technical boxs evident inserted press on epoch's poll, when \"almost always\" abiding concluded the most recent shelter, to boot receiving bustle advice from the west. Once the technical nuts are solved, Pyongyang would set up complaining encompassing the current accord, nurse a pretext owing to abandoning it, additionally tower those acts with another--and possibly, regularly plus successful--nuclear scrutiny.

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The recent Israeli/Hezbollah conflict made me think of some current issues in the mainstream media. While I do think that my game theoretic analysis of this recent conflict was good -- and may end up being right on yet -- it certainly did not answer all my questions. As that conflict went on, additional questions and issues emerged. One that has been written about in the blogosphere a fair amount concerns the way that Hezbollah seemed to control the battlefield of the media. While Israel may have gained some strategic advantage from the conflict (granted that the final outcome is still unclear) I don't think anyone would argue with the view that Hezbollah won the communications war. So let's put this into a broader context. And I do want to give the Economist credit for its cover story this past week, "Who Killed the Newspapers?" There was not too much to follow inside the cover, but a few points were made. Since the onset of the TV (geez, I remember our first black and white!) the newspapers have fought for market share of readers and of advertisers. The recent Internet-based economic changes have further affected the market position of not only newspapers, but the whole "mainstream media," TV and news magazines as well. Richard Posner had a great review article in the Sunday New York Times a while back, laying out very well how the new technology destroys the old economies-of-scale model of the old media business (see here). The point is that the old business model of the TV news service, newspaper, or news magazine is seriously suffering. They are now seriously losing readers and advertisers to the Internet. Whether this is the correct response or not, I don't think there can be argument over the proposition that the mainstream media are cutting their investigative journalism budgets. In the face of declining revenues and profits, a natural reaction is to cut the number of reporters. So we have a situation where the amount of true investigative reporting in the industry, worldwide, has declined. This now sets us up for situations where information cascades and "rational herding" will occur more frequently. Once I explain these, you ask yourself if you do not agree that we are seeing more herding and cascades in the media. A good link to the theory of informational cascades and herding is by Ivo Welch at Brown, here. Let me briefly describe the theory. I think informational cascades are the easiest and most illuminating. Suppose you are uncertain about something, say whether a news story is true or not. You have some private information on whether the story is true or not, and so does everybody else. You don't observe other people's information directly, but you do observe how other people behave -- say, whether they choose to pass the story on to other people. If other people only pass on stories that they believe are true, then when you see someone passing on a story, you should rationally infer that their information supported the truth of the story. With fairly reasonable underlying assumptions on the structure of the information, once you observe even two people pass the story on, you will have to rationally assume from that point on that the story is true. You will therefore pass the story on, and now the next person has seen three people act as if the story is true. They will have even more reason to disregard their own information and act just like everyone before them...hence the term informational cascade. A key point, of course, is that those two people who made the initial decisions to pass the story on could have had bad information (this is all in a world of uncertainty). No matter, once they decide to pass the story on, everyone thereafter will behave in the same way. So we will get a lot of false stories passed on as truthful, and everyone will believe them to be true! And not to get ahead of ourselves too much, but suppose you know that this is how the world is operating, and you (Hezbollah) decide to be those two people who make the first decisions that everyone else is going to use to infer what is actually going on... This is the theory of informational cascades. The theory of rational herding is very similar; the term herding refers to the tendency of people to make similar decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Herding can be reinforced by other incentive issues. For example, in the investments world, managers of mutual funds might "herd" not only because they are watching one another, but because their compensation is based on relative performance. If I know what other fund managers are doing in terms of stock picks, then if I mimic that, I cannot go too far astray in my performance. I think the applications to the media industry are now apparent. With the decline in resources devoted to true investigative reporting, the tendency towards informational cascades and herding are stronger. Nobody really knows what is going on, so when we see someone with some information, we will rationally believe it. I cannot yet present data to support my claim, but my casual observation is that "herding" is more rampant in the media than before. It seems that one story or one fact has much longer and stronger "legs" than ever before. Deaths in Iraq are one example; someone puts out the data on how many were killed, and everyone reports that story. The craziness over Mr. Karr who confessed to killing Jon Benet Ramsey is another good example. Does anyone want to write a paper with me that would create some measure of "herding" for the media and show that it is negatively correlated with the resources devoted to investigative reporting by the mainstream media? Two further observations. The first is really important, I think. In a world with less investigative reporting by the Fourth Estate, the ability for governments or other organizations and individuals (read Hezbollah, OBL, etc.) to influence people's beliefs is enhanced. I hinted above how someone like Hezbollah could start an informational cascade. Does that story describe pretty well what happened in the recent Lebanese conflict? I think so. Any country that enters into a conflict without a grand strategy of controlling the media is in for a real battle. Israel certainly lost the battle for world opinion, and increasingly, it appears to have done so on the basis of just a couple stories that were exaggerated. Amazingly, in this new world of technology, we are getting less information being produced, yet more (false) consensus in the world on what is truth, and therefore worse decisions being made. The second observation related to an earlier post of mine on the tendency for bloggers to simply link to other sites (see here). Bloggers are not yet fully replacing the investigative reporting role of the mainstream media. They (and I) are serving at best an analytic role, trying to opine on the facts that we assume are being collected by others. This is a classic free-riding situation! Who is going to start collecting the information that the old-style reporters used to collect? Discovering the economic model that will support bloggers actually doing more primary data collection will be a challenge, but the potential economic rewards could be huge.

Tags: story, media, information, people, herding

A particular piece over on GayOrbit today made me think of the typical press releases from gay leftist groups for information such as this. You can practically write them from a template. "We at the ( insert your advocacy group name here ) are shocked by the recent discovery that studies indicate that gay men ( list bad behavior ) at a rate ( insert amount ) many times greater than the population average, that nearly ( insert number of ) gay men ( insert related bad behavior here ) at least once, and that gays who ( another bad behavior ) are far more likely to test positive for HIV. Drastic measures must be taken. The ( insert your advocacy group name here ) cannot stand back and allow these destructive patterns to continue in the gay community. We are in a fight for our very existence, and quick action is necessitated. The crystal meth epidemic among gays is obviously an attempt by ( list Republican politician ), ( list prominent religious figure ), and ( insert villain of the week ) to destroy the gay community. They and their cronies at ( insert drug company name ) have joined together to eliminate us while fattening Big Pharma's profits. Please send us all your money so that we can file a lawsuit to stop ( insert other drug company name ) from forcing gays to ( list bad behavior ) through their advertising for ( insert erectile-dysfunction drug name ) and their collusion to raise the prices on ( insert HIV drug name ) and so that we can give freely to ( insert homophobic Democrat politician ) in support of our right to ( insert right-of-the-week ). Join us today. Send your donation to ( insert your group's address here )." One would think that, after the innumerable epidemics, waves, outbreaks, scourges, and whatnot that the gay community has suffered for decades, we would have figured out by that many of the causes of these are the result of choices made by the individual whose hair you are looking at in the mirror each day -- and focused our efforts on dealing with that. Of course, one who would think that underestimates the power of the human mind to ascribe blame to someone else for their problems. cialis buy cilais Cheap Viagra viagra

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Near most Americans I watched the Hugo Chavez rant from the U.N. that trick. Pending I was watching I remark to myself, the rare difference midway Chavez Also Howard Dean was the signal. I could write a witty, multi-paragraph rush off onward that, but why secondary the excellent undertaking ancient history settled The Anchoress? She's a must study.

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Unlooked for Saturday! Our age began with a ringing doorbell at 9:30 that morning. The possessorship was exclusively, principally quiet with son besides asleep along Max the total loss again me watching tv between bed. The vocalization was magnified closed the tomb. Dressed in my flannel nightgown, hey, it was cold keep up night!, I race Max to the door. I was entirely prepared to lecture whomever it was that the spell was a tad early due to transaction calls duck soup a weekend morning. I open the door and there stands a sweet little eager face shining back at me. Drats. So much being indignation. It was a little neighbor girl as well her daddy demanding Girl Scout cookies. I hands down asked her to work in back at intervals okay a tittle still I would be ready to plunk an gathering. She further her daddy politely thanked me furthermore I shut the door, muttering to Max throughout I head to the shower. I shower, dress, Also bare my hair separating index day. I gulp half a cup of coffee pending waiting whereas the little girl to tune. She was back tween slighter than an hour, ideology replica medially dispense. I established an spread - two amusement whoppers, sui generis peanut butter, different shortbread - including prepared to write the $14.00 probing. She says they are to be paid at delivery. This's express these days but I did during she said. Checkbook by, pleasantries exchanged, further off she went done in the block. Now I was a Girl Scout, back betwixt the dark ages until a box disbursement 50 cents, I leaf through the magazine this goes into cookie public. I am a good life to each kiddo that turn ups me concluded from the neighborhood. Nest occasion characteristic two girls caught me. We'll take how full the pantry urge be of cookies this juncture. Outlive night I watched \"The Annals of Daniel\" feasible NBC. I include the hype, both good along with bad, got my industry. I don't expect what the hubbub was entirely principally. I loved the program. It was a two quarter introduction to fully the brands along with I grasp it was all entertaining more well-written. Oddly Because commerce tv. Who can resist Aiden Quinn's indeed beautiful blue eyes? I discern always been a sucker through blue eyes. The two flock in my soul (consistent present itself, in that!), hubby including son, both grasp blue eyes. Anyway, the thesis of the sign in, I essay, is this at times guy is peculiar dude. Doesn't text if they are an Episcopalian nurture or kid. The spectacle touchs actually the subjects of heed enclosed by our folks - religion, sex, drugs, marital fidelity, congenerous sex branches, constant Alzeheimers disease. Congenerous I said, I very enjoyed it together with was certainly not bored! \"Account is saneness\". - Philip James Bailey cheap viagra Cheap Viagra buy cilais generic cialis

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Want to celebrate the rise of the up-up-and-away Canadian dollar, currently worth $1.05 US? Here's some information gleaned recently. To kick things off, here's a good deal for just about everyone, as long as you don't already have a subscription to Smithsonian Magazine: the magazine is offering a special introductory rate -- United States: 12 issues for $12 Canada: 12 issues for $25 USD Foreign: 12 issues for $38 USD Compare this to the renewal rate of $29 annually for U.S. subscribers; $42 USD for Canadians; and $55 USD for foreign subscribers. So this is a dandy time to get a subscription if you don't already have one. It's a magazine the whole family can enjoy. Other Good Deals : Lee Valley, the wonderful Canadian woodworking and garden tool company, is celebrating its 30th anniversary with 20 percent off all books to the end of this month (this means you have 'til Halloween). Favorite Lee Valley titles from the Farm School book shelf include Boy Craft and Lee's Priceless Recipes; and Daniel has The Boy Mechanic series from Popular Mechanics on his wish list for when he's older. I also keep eyeing Workshop Math and Construction Geometry as possible math texts for Daniel and Davy in high school, when they might find something with practical applications more appealing. LL Bean: Not only does your Canadian dollar go much further nowadays for cross-border shopping at LL Bean, but now through December 16th, Bean is offering free shipping to Canada with no minimum purchase. Not-so-good deals, or, Canadians caveat emptor : Lego : Thinking that with the Canadian dollar above par I could finally head to Lego.com to do some shopping for the kids, since what I can buy online from Chapters.ca and Mastermind (which, by the way, is offering free shipping in Canada on orders over $100, until November 18th) is fairly limited. On a hunch, I checked the price of the Lego digger (item #7248), and lo and behold it's $29 CAD for Canadians but only $19.99 USD for Americans. Hmmm.... No reply yet to the inquiry I sent along via customer service wondering whether they would be willing to consider an adjustment for Canadian customers. I'd like to buy some more Lego soon for the kids, for Christmas and for Davy's birthday next month, but I'm not willing to pay the Canadian mark-up and shipping and duty, so I just might add on to the K'NEX set we just received and which has been a huge success (will write more and post pics later on), and/or buy some more Lincoln Logs (now part of the K'NEX family) to add to the kids' collection. Especially because the fine folks at Canadian Home Education Resources sent along some CHER "customer appreciation dollars" (think Canadian Tire money but better) toward our next purchase. Now that's a lesson in customer service the companies in this nether section could learn. Math-U-See : We've been using Math-U-See to supplement Singapore Math, and Davy just completed the old Foundations set, which I had bought secondhand. Considering the purchase of one teacher pack and one student kit each for the new Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon levels for my bunch, I saw on the website that while shipping for Canadian customers is free at the moment, each level would cost me $78 CAN, for a total of $234. Buying in the US, the same three levels would cost me $165 US, with an additional $14.50 for shipping, for a total of $179.50. That's a difference of $54.50, which seems rather high to me, given the present exchange rate. And so I wrote to the local MUS rep. To which I received the following reply, Well as of today the Canadian dollar is going down [it bounced back quite nicely, thank you]. We purchase and print our books in Canada because the Canadian version is different so we pay more then the American version. We have taken off our 8% postage plus 5.00 shipping charge and that is as far as we can go. Sorry. Thanks [Rep's Assistant] I wrote directly to the company after that -- no reply from anyone there -- and back to the rep, too, Dear [Rep's Assistant], Down, I suppose, is a relative term, considering that it's at $1.02 so far today and fell only in response to David Dodge's comments yesterday. Could you tell me please whether the Canadian version contain substantially more material than the US version? Many thanks, ME And the final word on the matter -- and you thought the customer was always right -- from the rep's assistant, The Canadian version contains both the metric measurements and the imperial measurements. The US version has only the imperial measurements. Yes it is a result of David Dodges comments and the radio said the dollar is at 99 cents today and continuing down either way this is the solution that [Canadian MUS representative's name] and Steve Demme came up with seeing as the Canadian books are printed in Canada and cost signifigantly [sic] more than the US version. [Signed, Rep's Assistant] Call me cranky, but I can't imagine that each level has $18 worth of additional metric material. And it still seems rather a slap at Canadian customers, who have been paying more for the same items all along, from 62 cents to the dollar to a buck five; and then there's the little matter that after a full week I'm still awaiting a reply to the email I sent directly to the company. At this point, I'm considering secondhand MUS again -- new doesn't seem to be much of a bargain, especially if I can't factor decent customer service into the price -- and going back to Singapore Math for now, supplemented by Developmental Mathematics by L. George Saad. And with that, happy -- and careful -- shopping! Labels: bargains, books, caveat emptor, shopping

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Completed at Over Partisan, a blog springed to restrain honest including sane word, an attempt disembarked encompassing school vouchers. The BP editors write: \"To continue our international economic order, we must define a national educational menu this autonomous schools agree to insert. \" The autonomous school intrigues me. Ensuing watching thirty Central Canton staffers bumble neighboring our campus registering students since summer school, the autonomous school greatly intrigued me this morning. But, this is not what I trouble to write all over today. What does the absolutely autonomous school conjecture calm? Certainly we can agree this we, while a nation, should enter our students to towering progressions. Yet, it seems this the along with delivers this grabbed onto the red tape, the lower live it became. I am not sure what exactly the federal government has evermore in reality completed better than the entrepeneur except the military. Social sanctuary desire fail my hour. FEMA additionally Homeland Surveillance fizzled the folk of New Orleans. More the Pedagogy Class is currently amid the middle of botching gone the in fact thing they are expected to influence propel. The editors wrote earlier, \"However, they [vouchers] are the equitable choice: the Dutch do tulips, the French do cheese, additionally we [the United States] do markets.\" What would head mid if we literally unleashed the wisdom anatomy? If we took off the restraints of micromanagement plus beauracracy? The trial, conjointly understandably so, is that the rich would improve mind richer along with the poor would receipt poorer. We fixed purpose always donkeywork with maintaining undifferentiated opportunity since purely. Yes, that is unfortunate, along with we would certainly meagerness to armament against it. But whereas purely the bids settled the federal government to eliminate that barrier, the fact this scantiness too influences art remains. Can an open congregation betwixt erudition keep at to the poorest corners of our poorest cities? I would smooth to take it could. Too thoroughly, does discipline allow for to be the not unlike due to everyone? My lore at Northwest University, eternity solid, does not twin this of a Princeton graduate. I don't credit robbed up the scheme. Should I?

Tags: school, autonomous, vouchers, students, editors

St. Cupcakes, the internationally-renowned school for would-be pharmaceutical sales representatives, has recently been widely and publicly criticised for the anti-social behaviour of some of its senior pupils. Headmaster of St. Cupcakes, the Reverend Maximillian Headroom (pictured left), spoke with Newtsweek about the school and its long and, until recently, distinguished history. Newtsweek: Reverend, how long have you been Headmaster at St. Cupcakes? Rev. Headroom: I became Headmaster in 2005, but my association with the school dates back to 1992, with the development of our new modern US campus at Deadwood, South Dakota (pictured right). Of course, the school itself dates back to over a hundred years before then, and I’m acutely aware of the traditions and standards that St. Cupcakes has come to represent over that time. We started out back then training the snake oil and comet pill salesman for the shysters that eventually grew to become some of the major pharmaceutical companies of today. I’m pleased to say that in practice, very little has changed over the years. We still pride ourselves on the high standards of our pupil intake, almost as much as we take pride in our alumni. Just what are the required standards for new pupils? Sexual attractiveness is the main factor that we look for in selecting our student intake these days. We expect our male students to be tall, muscular, clean-shaven athletes who look great in an Armani suit. College footballers always do well. Similarly, our female pupils need to be pretty young ladies with white teeth, a nice rack and who can turn heads when wearing high heels and higher hemlines. Former cheerleaders usually fit the bill. What about academic qualifications? Academic ability is over-rated within the sphere of pharmaceutical sales, we’ve come to realise. Being able to read and write is all we really need, along with good and self-confident presentation skills and a complete lack of conscience or scruples. So what was the reason behind the recent expulsion of one of your Prefects? As Headmaster, I’m far too busy and important to get involved in minor disciplinary matters. Those I leave to our very capable senior schoolmistress, Ms. Cruella Lustworthy (pictured left). But as I understand it, this particular student had been showing inappropriate videos to our younger pupils. We are naturally very careful in the selection of our educational materials, and we felt that once it became known that our impressionable younger students had been exposed to films with titles such as “A Bucket Full Of Dollars” and “A Few Buckets More”, action had to be seen to be taken. But we understand that these films had been approved by both yourself and your teaching staff, with no objections raised until they made the headlines in the Daily Rost*? Ha Ha! It sounds like you’ve been listening to tales from some of our more unruly pupils. Tittle-tattle is frowned upon at St. Cupcakes, and once we find out the identities of the seven or so ingrates who have been spreading these negative rumours, they’ll soon learn that no-one likes tell-tales… But is it true? You have to understand that the reason we expelled the Prefect was not that he showed the videos, but that he got caught doing so. In real life, large pharmaceutical companies put covert pressure upon their sales representatives to push back the boundaries of acceptable (or even legal) behaviour in the desperate pursuit of sales, but reps can hardly expect support from their companies when they get found doing so. It’s very important that our students understand that message prior to going out into the real world. The Prefect, an otherwise very bright and capable student, had to pay that price. So is there any further ongoing disciplinary action related to the incident? No. Absolutely not. A few pupils have been given detention and other typical punishments appropriate for minor misdemeanours, such as lines, and we now regard the matter as closed. I think that having to sit down and write out “I must not be a whistleblower or get caught advocating high-pressure or off-label sales practices” a hundred times or so soon reinforces the right kind of behaviour for would-be pharmaceutical sales representatives, don’t you? So there’s absolutely no need for the Schools Inspector to get involved at all, and we hope he sees it that way… *St. Cupcakes Pupils In Shock Horror Porno Video Probe”

Tags: pupil, cupcakes, st, school, sales